Poll: Sinema catches up with Kelly in popularity | Arizona
(The Center Square) – Senator Kyrsten Sinema is catching up in popularity with Junior Senator Mark Kelly, who could have an unstable lead for re-election in the 2022 Senate race.
Sinema angered many Democratic Party members in March after voting against raising Arizona’s minimum wage to $ 15 from the current $ 7.25. Senator Bernie Sanders has sought to include the increase in the minimum wage in a White House-backed plancoronavirusrelief package. Sinema was one of seven Democratic senates to vote “no” on the bill.
According toOH Predictive InsightsArizona’s latest boost in public opinion, Sinema was clearly behind Kelly in March (Sinema Net: -1, Kelly Net: +11). Sinema’s net favorability (45/36, +9) is now close to Kelly’s (45/38, +7).
OHPI chief research officer Mike Noble believes Sinema has time to improve her favorability ahead of her next election in 2024. “While she still needs to draw these voters to her camp, the outreach of Sinema with Republicans continues to bear fruit, ”Noble said.
The differences between the favors of the two Arizona senators are based on their positions on the main issues of the state.
According to the OH Predictive Insights report, supporters of Senator Sinema believe immigration is Arizona’s number one problem (Sinema: 35%, Kelly: 27%), while Senator Kelly is preferred by those who believe that education (Kelly: 57%, Sinema: 52)%) or health care (Kelly: 56%, Sinema: 47%) should be priorities in Arizona.
Media consumption could be a factor in the favor of Arizona senators. Voters who watch conservative-leaning Fox News preferred Sinema (57%) over Kelly (40%), while those who said they watch liberal-leaning MSNBC at least once a week prefer Kelly (86%) over Sinema (68 %).
Sinema’s favor is increasing among Democrats, with 54% viewing her favorably, but Kelly is significantly more liked by her party members with 72% approval. These approval ratings are similar with independent voters in Arizona (Sinema 44%, Kelly 42%), although Republican voters prefer Sinema (37%) to Kelly (22%).
Senator Kelly is on the ballot for his re-election in 2022 as he served in office for the last two years of the late Senator John McCain’s tenure.
Early polls have shown Kelly is ahead of his potential competitors as a starter right now, but he’s not going over the 50% mark, giving the Republican Party a chance to reverse the seat.
Kelly holds the lead because of her favor with Independent and Hispanic / Latino voters. Noble said Hispanic / Latino voters turned out to be the most influential group of voters in recent elections.
A third of Maricopa County residents identify as Latino, according to census data. President Joe Biden won Maricopa in the 2020 election and then he won the race.
Noble said Kelly’s current lead over Republican opponents doesn’t mean he’ll win the seat.
“He’s still vulnerable below the all-important 50% threshold, which means the next Arizona Senate seat is still up for grabs,” Noble said.