Newsom faces turnout challenge in California in recall election
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WHO IS LIKELY TO VOTE BY RECALL?
Via Lara Korte …
A new study by UC San Diego Off-cycle elections, like Newsom’s next callback, tend to be dominated by conservative, wealthy, and older white voters.
This is not good news for the government. Gavin Newsom, who is currently voting on a narrow margin and working to bridge an enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans.
Importantly, Democratic leaders played an important role in determining the date for the September 14 election. The idea was to schedule a recall as soon as possible to avoid a disaster due to forest fires or COVID-19 that could sidetrack Newsom.
These disasters happen anyway, my colleague Kim Bojórquez reports.
The UC San Diego study, published in American Journal of Political Science, examined all local elections held in California over an eight-year period and found that simply breaking out of the cycle, with local elections scheduled to be held on the same day as the state and national contests doubles voter turnout and leads to an electorate that is considerably more representative.
The study found that California voters in off-cycle elections are on average 67% white, but that number drops to 57% in statewide or nationwide elections.
In contrast, the share of Hispanic voters rose from 18% to 25%, while the share of Asian Americans dropped from 8% to 10.3%.
“What our results tell us is that the more unusual the timing of an election, the fewer people there will be to vote and the less representative those votes will be,” said the lead author. Zoltan Hajnal noted. “With a recall election taking place on an unexpected date, we are essentially making it more difficult for voters to participate. As a result, we might see a lower turnout that is less representative of the California population. “
WHAT IS PROP. 22 REPRESENTATIVE DECISION?
Passing through Jeong Park …
Both sides of the Prop. 22 The debate presents the ballot initiative and the legal battle as a struggle for democracy, in light of the county court ruling on Friday which ruled the measure unconstitutional.
The measure was passed with 58% of the vote in 2020, what proponents of Proposition 22 called a “overwhelming majority”. The prop. 22 exempts drivers for companies like Uber, Lyft and DoorDash of the 2019 labor law called Assembly Bill 5, which forces companies to grant benefits to more workers.
“It is clear that the vested interests behind this frivolous challenge attack the overwhelming will of the voters and the decisive wishes of the drivers who have fought to remain independent,” said Jim pyatt, a Modesto-based rideshare driver, in a statement from the Protect App-Based Drivers & Services Coalition which includes gig businesses and community organizations.
But opponents of Proposition 22, who held a press conference Monday morning to celebrate the decision, believe the court is protecting the democracy of companies that have spent some $ 200 million lobbying for the measure.
“Businesses alone should not dictate the laws in our state,” said Bob schoonover, president of SEIU California State Council who, along with a group of carpooling drivers, filed the complaint that led to the decision. “SEIU will continue to stand with the drivers who lead this critical fight to protect democracy from the biggest spenders. “
Both sides pledge to continue to defend their cause, possibly until the California Supreme Court, which will take at least several months, according to Scott kronland, a lawyer representing SEIU and the carpooling drivers.
Even though Proposition 22 is ruled unconstitutional, other lawsuits are still in court over whether drivers should be classified as employees, Kronland said. Yet he said he was confident the courts would eventually rule in his favor on all of these issues.
HRC weighs on recall
The Human rights campaign, the nation’s largest LGBT civil rights organization, has embarked on California politics by calling on voters to reject Newsom’s recall.
“Governor Gavin Newsom has long been a strong advocate for LGBTQ + equality, and is the most pro-LGBTQ + governor in California history, having signed legislation to protect and advance the rights of transgender people,” expand access to HIV prevention drugs and help California fight and rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic which has disproportionately impacted LGBTQ + people, ”said the HRC vice president. JoDee Winterhof said in a statement. “If Californians do not vote no in recall elections by September 14, the rights, protections and fundamental equality of 1.6 million LGBTQ + Californians could be at risk. This recall election is a dangerous and unnecessary attempt to seize power and roll back progress in California, and it is up to every Californian to vote no. “
The HRC highlights Newsom’s long history of pro-LGBTQ + accomplishments, including his decision as mayor of San Francisco to issue thousands of marriage certificates to same-sex couples when federal law still prohibited such things.
Newsom has recently received a wave of national support, notably from Sens. Elizabeth warren, Bernie sanders and Cory booker. Vice president Kamala harris, a contemporary of Newsom in Bay Area politics, is expected to travel to California this week to campaign on his behalf.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I fully support and co-author the Kimchi Day House resolution…. But you know what that means ???? Tuesday taco resolution in the works! “
– MP Lorena Gonzalez, D-San Diego, via Twitter.
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